Kazakhstan Report [English Version] - January 2021
*Note: Translation made by Elana T.
Since January 2nd 2022, protests broke out throughout Kazakhstan, first in the city of Zhanaozen, then in other parts of the country. These protests are due to the rise of gas prices, which have doubled and even tripled in some regions. Initially peaceful, they quickly escalated when armed elements appeared in different cities such as Almaty (also called Alma-Ata), the economic capital and biggest city of the country. These events quickly took aback the government and put its security forces in difficulty. Tokaiev, the head of state, called on the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) which includes countries who were part of the ex-USSR.
For the first time since its creation, this organization deployed its forces, including different states such as the Russian, the Kyrgyz, the Tadjik, the Armenian and the Belarusians to Kazakhstan in order to relieve the forces of the Kazakh government and to ensure stability.
You can find the complete event watch here :
This report will get back to the multiple important aspect of Kazakhstan in order to better understand the stakes of these protests.
Kazakhstan at the Crossroads of the world
Bordered by Russia at the north, China at the east and Azerbaijan at the west, Kazakhstan is the biggest country in Central Asia. It hosts the biggest Russian population on its territory –after Russia-, even though the number of Russian inhabitants decreased after the dislocation of the Soviet Union, to the benefit of the Kazakh population, enabling the emergence of Kazakh nationalism and the search of a post-Soviet identity. This change has been affecting the country for several years, since it wanted to get rid of the Russian economical, diplomatic, cultural and military monopoly. Kazakhstan is therefore looking for that balance in foreign powers, especially western.
It is in that context that the country carried out reforms (starting in 2017), concerning the national language, aiming to distinguish the Kazakh language (main language of the country, belong to the Turkic language family tree) from the Russian, the second language of the country, by replacing the Cyrillic alphabet with the Latin alphabet.
N.B : Prior to the Soviet era (before 1929), the Kazakh language was written with the Arabic alphabet.For those who would like to go deeper into the Kazakh language aspect, this excellent article briefly traces the linguistic evolution of the country.
Therefore, in the national language, the word Kazakhstan isn’t written “KA3AKCTAH”, but “QAZAQSTAN ». It is a very strong symbol in a country where the alphabet has been modified 3 times in less than a century.
previously mentioned, in addition to culturally drifting away from Russia (although the majority of the population kept the Russian language),Kazakhstan is also looking to open its market to Western countries, such as the United States and Europe, but also to other clients such as China and Israel, creating major divergences among the people in power. It seems that these divergences played a role in the protests that occurred early 2022, although this role shouldn’t be overestimated.
Kazakh Economy
Without diving into details about the economy of the country, this part will cover the biggest stakes and assets of this country, coveted by many foreign investors. A report by the International Energy Agency about Kazakhstan’s Energy Profile is available
N.B : A report much more detailed by the International Energy Agency about Kazakhstan’s Energy Profile is available.
Until 1991, the USSR had full access to the immensity of the resource of Kazakhstan. After the dislocation of the Soviet Union, Russia saw itself deprived of this monopoly, especially after the opening of its mark to foreign investors.
First producer in the world, Kazakhstan possesses on its own 12% of the world’s Uranium reserves, mainly exploited by the company Kazatomprom. In 2014, this company constituted 25% of the Uranium world market.
To better understand the protests that happened at the beginning of the year, a few elements must be taken into consideration:
Kazakhstan is country rich in natural resources, such as uranium, gas and petrol, mainly controlled by different clans in the government through state-run companies.
The Kazakh population essential consumes gas for most of its daily needs such as car rides, which functions with liquefied petroleum gas, less expensive than petrol.
We can notice that most of the industrial activities linked to gas are located on the west of the country. This is where the protests started, especially in the city of Zhanaozen, near the Caspian Sea. The main gas blocks industrially exploited are found in this sector. A part of them are directly connected to the Novorossiysk site in Russia, which is an important Gas and petrol terminal. It is also to be noted that there are pipelines heading north, to Russia, like the Pavlodar pipeline. These pipelines were partly inherited from the Soviet Union. These pipelines have been negotiated by Russia during the country’s independence.
Furthermore, the ambitious Chinese Silk Road that go through Kazakhstan should be taken into consideration when analyzing this situation as well as the amplitude of the Chinese interests in this region.
Remark : Kazakhstan is an important bitcoin minor. The country constitutes 25% of the global bitcoin mining.
First January 2022, a law of market liberalization entered into force in Kazakhstan, a country part of the Eurasian Economic Union. This law aims to rebalance the domestic balance on the Gaz. This law aspired to introduce a new wholesale system of the gas through electronic negotiations platforms. This had an immediate impact of gas prices, which led to the first events of the protests.
Security aspect
Another aspect to take into account is the Pan-Turkish policy of Ankara. This doctrine is similar to the one of pan-Slavism, in the sense that it aspires to unify different countries based on the ethnic and linguistic common aspects of these countries.
In Turkey’s case, the country aspires to reunite under its wind most of Central Asia’s countries- this politics has encountered a massive success in Azerbaijan for example- and particularly Kazakhstan. Approaching these countries is possible through multiple aspects and translates into arms sales, as well as cultural exchanges and investments in multiple strategic sectors.
An example illustrating the military aspect of is the sales of the famous TB-2 Turkish drones of Bayraktar in Kazakhstan, in November 2021, 6 years after the sales of the Chinese drones Wing Long.
The Turkish drone ANKA-S has also been announced in November 2021, as an exportation towards Nursultan.
Other contracts in the armored vehicles field have been signed, such as the troop transport vehicles « APC ARMA », produced by the Turkish society Otokar Otomotic ve Svunma Sanayi.
Finally, at the occasion of different exercise, we can notice the presence of the Kazakh troops next to the Turkish troop as well as other troops of Central Asia, like Azerbaijani or the Uzbekistani.
It must also be underlined that there has been a power struggle between Russia and Turkey. Russia has been its arms sale in Kazakhstan for a few years.
N.B : Turkey also put in place a Turkic council in order to reinforce cooperation between the Central Asian States, enabling itself to spread its influence.
Political Situation
Kazakhstan, such as many other Central Asian countries, functions on system of clan power. Similar conditions can be observer in Southern Caucasus, since the end of the Soviet Union. Generally, the leader of these clans place their relatives at the head of the State-run companies or key positions in the government.
The actual president, Kassym Jomart Tokayev, succeeded to Nursultan Nazerbayev, whose clan had strategic roles in the country and who continued to pull the threads of the government until the peak of the protests, during which he quit the country.
At the heart of the protest, we assisted to the eviction of the Nazerbayev clan, which translates to declarations of the current president, who dismissed the government.
After which took place a wave of destitution of the former president’s surrounding, such as his nephew.
The arrest of the head of intelligence- Karim Massimov- the eighth of January 2022 - Karim Massimov – suggests that there might have been a will to separate elements affiliated to the former president and to enable Tokayev to reinforce his power.
We can also distinguish signals going this direction, such as:
Dimash Dosanov, husband of Aliya Nazabaieva who flew country with 300 million dollars according to reports, who quit his position of general manager of the State-run society Kaz TransOil.
Timur Kulibayev*, husband of Dinara Nazerbaieva, who quit his position of chief president of the national Chamber of entrepreneurs.
* His plane has been seen – during the protests period- between the Kyrgyzstan and the United Arab Emirates, which suggests that he might’ve quit the country.
The second husband of Dariga Naerbaieva, Kairat Sharipbayev, who prematurely quit his job as the president of the State-run society QazaqGaz.
A few days after the beginning of the protests, after noticing that his security forces were overwhelmed by the protesters and by the armed elements who defeated some policemen and soldiers, Tokayev took the decision to call the CSTO in order to get help for the government.
This request has been taken into account by the organization who mobilized contingents of the State members of the organizations :
Russia - 3000 soldiers
Belarus - 500 soldiers
Tajikistan - 200 soldiers
Kyrgyzstan - 150 soldiers
Armenia - 70 soldiers
The main mission of these troops consisted in protecting strategic elements of the country in order to ease the Kazakh security forces. It is in that context that the CSTO protected the Kazatomprom installations, and the Baikonour station.
Contestation appeared among the Kazakh diaspora against the entry of the CSTO troops in the country, and we even saw the appearance of a mysterious « Kazakhstan Liberation Front » group that can be explained with Kazakh nationalism that wishes to break free from Russian influence, but also by the influence of foreign countries that benefitted in supporting such a group. At the moment, this group isn’t active anymore, and no information tells us if the members have been detained or if the group has been broken up.
N.B : Some reports mentioned the presence of « Islamist elements » during the protests, and some beheadings have been signaled. The little information about the subject doesn’t enable to develop this aspect but it must be noted that the son of Nazerbayev –Kairat Satybaldyuly-, who used to be in charge of the Kazakh Intelligence, became an Islamist. This would explain Tokayev’s claim regarding terrorist presence, which must be approached with caution.
After several days of « anti-terrorist » operations, the central government declared the situation to have come back to normal throughout the country, as well as the seizure of weapons and the arrest of armed individuals, such as a Kazakh mafia, locally known as « Wild Arman », reputed to be close to the Turkish mafia, and having more ambiguous links with Ankara such as the Turkish minister of foreign affairs Cavusogly as well as the Mafioso Sedat Peker.
His arrests prompts questions regarding the role of Turkey during the protests that took place.
It must also be noted that at the heart of the protests, even though he was in exile, a man named Ablyatov claimed to be the leader of the protests. He was probably just an opportunist, since he was accused to have embezzled a few billion dollars from a Kazakh bank. The Kazakhs activists quickly rejected the claims he made, although the Ablyatov’s official Facebook page was active.
CONCLUSION
Kazakhstan is a highly strategic country in the energy field. It’s also a major pillar in Central Asia. Its resources are coveted by foreign powers, but the clan management of the country hindered its development. The Kazakh population, disappointed by decades of non-sharing of wealth, expressed its anger the second of January, and pushed the current government to reshape its political class. If these protests didn’t lead to the exclusion of the Nazerbayev clan, that the population have been contesting for a few years as we speak, the questioning of the place of foreign powers during these protests –which took a violent turn- stays legitimate.
The foreign country’s increase in influence against Russia, such as China’s or Turkey’s, is to be considered on the long term. Other States and actors, such as the United States of America or France could also extend their influence with partnerships or military sales, but also with cultural approaches, could push Kazakhstan to break up with their Soviet history and take an increasingly nationalist turn.